Ireland’s housing crisis isn’t about migrants. It’s about choices.

Prices keep rising because we haven’t built enough homes for years. The Central Bank now says Ireland needs ~52,000 new homes every year to the middle of this century—about 20,000 more than 2023 output. That’s not rhetoric; it’s the Bank’s own estimate. See its 2024 bulletin and Deputy Governor remarks. (Central Bank; remarks). (Central Bank of Ireland)

Even the State’s planning playbook accepts this scale. The revised National Planning Framework, noted by planning firms and government documents this year, targets ~50,000 homes a year to 2040. (MHC; Draft First Revision). (Mason Hayes Curran)

We also started from a deep hole. The Housing Commission puts the underlying deficit at roughly 212,500–256,000 homes (as of Census 2022)—a decade of under-building that predates recent migration flows. (Report PDF; summary). (assets.gov.ie)

On the ground, homelessness set repeated records in 2025. In June, official figures showed 15,915 people in emergency accommodation, per Focus Ireland’s analysis of Department data. (Focus Ireland press release). (Focus Ireland)

And no, it’s not because “Ireland is full.” We still have underused stock: the latest GeoDirectory report shows 80,328 vacant dwellings (3.7%) in Q2 2025, alongside ~33,000 new address points added over the year. (EY/GeoDirectory PDF; GeoDirectory release). (EY)

What’s really driving the crisis

Planning and delivery capacity. According to the Central Bank, the binding constraint is scaling construction consistently—standardised designs, serviced land, predictable financing—not a sudden demand shock. (CBI signed article). (Central Bank of Ireland)

Years of under-building. The State’s own commission says we’re a quarter-million homes short. You don’t fix that by pointing at new arrivals; you fix it by sustained building. (Housing Commission). (assets.gov.ie)

Inefficient use of existing stock. Vacancy and dereliction remain stubborn in many counties; bringing these homes back is a policy choice. (EY/GeoDirectory). (EY)

Let’s address the scapegoat

“Reduce immigration and housing gets better.” That claim doesn’t stack up. Cutting immigration wouldn’t materially ease the crisis because the binding constraint is the huge pre-existing shortfall, not marginal demand, as RTÉ reported from expert analysis (30 Aug 2025). (RTÉ analysis). (RTÉ)

“Migrants are taking homes from Irish people.” Many migrants are actually helping build the homes we need. Official figures cited in the Oireachtas show 27,500 migrant workers in construction in 2023; government pages echo the same number. (Seanad record; gov.ie ‘Migration: the facts’). (Oireachtas)

“Migrants do fine in the housing market.” The ESRI’s 2024/25 monitoring report shows migrants are far more exposed to high housing costs and poverty after housing costs than Irish-born residents; media summaries carry the same figures. (ESRI news; Irish Times coverage). (ESRI)

“There’s no discrimination problem—just supply.” Research on PublicPolicy.ie documents systemic barriers in the private rental market for migrants and recommends rights-based fixes. (PublicPolicy.ie paper). (Public Policy)

“Ireland is full.” It’s a political slogan, not a diagnosis. Regional commentary has challenged the myth directly—arguing that policy and supply failures explain the crisis, not new arrivals. (Limerick Leader op-ed). (limerickleader.ie)

What will actually work

• Lock in 50–52k+ completions for a decade. Multi-year capital certainty, public-land release, faster planning, and standardised delivery—as per the Central Bank and the revised NPF. (CBI; NPF). (Central Bank of Ireland)

• Treat vacancy as supply. Scale compulsory sales where appropriate, targeted grants, and retrofit pipelines to bring ~80,000 empties into use at pace. (EY/GeoDirectory). (EY)

• Grow—not shrink—construction labour. The State’s own data show migrant workers are essential to output; restricting them reduces capacity. (gov.ie facts). (gov.ie)

• Prevent homelessness while supply scales. Focus on eviction prevention, cost-rental, acquisitions, and Housing First—as urged by Focus Ireland. (Focus Ireland). (Focus Ireland)

Bottom line

Blaming migrants won’t build a single home. According to the Central Bank, the Housing Commission, and official homelessness data, Ireland’s crisis stems from years of under-building, planning bottlenecks, and poor use of existing stock—not from people seeking safety or work. The path forward is dull but decisive: plan, finance, and deliver at the scale we already know we need. (CBI; Housing Commission; Focus Ireland; GeoDirectory). (Central Bank of Ireland)